Documentos de Trabajo
¿Hay vida después de las bonanzas?
Fernández, Cristina · Villar, Leonardo et al.
Using information for 131 countries since 1965 from the World Development Indicators database, this paper develops a new methodology to identify temporary booms including not only price booms but also booms in exported quantities. These booms were grouped in four types: agricultural products, metals, ores and fuels, short-term capital flows, and foreign direct investment. Once the booms were fully identified, we analyzed the relationship of each kind of boom with the business cycle and other macroeconomic variables of each country, not only during booms but also two years after the boom ended. This analysis is of the most importance at this present moment, in which the fall in natural prices coincide with a turning point in the US monetary policy, leading to the end of the boom of booms that has fueled the economies of the region during the last decade.
Agosto de 2015