WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

11/3/2016

Global Prospects and Policies. 

Research Departament, International Monetary Fund 

Patrick Blagrave y Eugenio Cerutti, Economistas del Fondo Monetario Internacional, visitaron Fedesarrollo el pasado martes 1 de noviembre para hablar a cerca de su investigación “La desaceleración del comercio mundial y los efectos secundarios de la transición de China y la migración”

Complex set of economic forces continues to shape a subdued outlook

  • Ongoing realignments: China rebalancing, commodity exporter adjustment, asynchronous monetary policy.
  • Persistent drivers: Weak productivity growth, demographics, low demand, low natural real interest rates.
  • Absent vigorous policy, there is a risk of falling further into a low-growth, deflationary trap.

But an overlay of political shocks becomes increasingly worrisome

  • Brexit creates uncertainty about the eventual economic arrangements with Europe, way forward for EU.
  • Euro area institutions remain under stress; stalled reform efforts; weakened governments in some EU countries.
  • Refugee crisis remains unresolved, displaced persons impose costs, especially in Middle East and Africa.
  • Increasing tide of anti-trade, anti-immigration sentiment in the United States and Europe.

Raising growth and enhancing stability look increasingly critical

  • Overarching policy challenge: reinvigorate growth, ensure it is distributed more evenly, and make it durable.
  • Continue structural and tax reform, balance sheet repair, and improvements in the financial stability framework.
  • Time for a comprehensive, consistent, coordinated, as well as well-communicated macro policy approach.

A continuación encontrará tres botones donde podrá descargar las presentaciones sobre la investigación.